22.9.08
17.9.08
31.7.08
Inevitable Collapse Of The Dollar?...I'm not sure I agree with this one..
Perhaps in the short term, the US currency with be pressured....Higher Interest Rates are needed...
In the long tern....US Currency will be strong, relative to other currencies..
30.7.08
30.6.08
24.6.08
15.6.08
20.5.08
14.5.08
27.4.08
Are Bad Guy Protagonists Trying to Tell Us Something?
Category: MOVIES
By: Pete Kendall, February 29, 2008
Bear markets demand their anti-heroes.
The Elliott Wave Fiancial Forecast, January 2008
Back in June 2007 as the stock market peak approach, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted emergence of an important new role model: “The anti-hero is increasingly garnering the public’s interest.” Back in January we were covered the successful premiere of Sweeny Todd, which earned positive reviews and related that The Demon Barber of Fleet Street has deep bear market roots that actually go back to the 1840s when the U.S. was still dealing with the social manifestations of Supercycle wave (II) and British stock prices were locked in a long bear market.
Our stock market opinion is confirmed by this years Oscars, which were literally dominated by anti-hero roles. The most hardware went to No Country for Old Men, “the bloody story of a drug deal gone bad,” which won four Oscars including best film. Hollywood is “focused on themes of betrayal, corruption and murder. No Country beat out There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton and Atonement, three films that also featured dark themes. The fifth nominee, Juno,was a comedy about teen pregnancy.” Well, even the 1930s had its screwball comedies.
What’s going on? Lisa Dombrowski, an associate professor of film at Wesleyan University, is on the money with this explanation from USA Today’s story: “The reflective attitudes of these characters fit the mood of this year." As the latest issue of EWFF says with respect to the markets and economy, there’s just no concealing the current position of social mood. In fact, this is confirms our forecast as an element of recognition is exactly what the Wave Principle calls for at this juncture of the wave count. This must be a big turn; the signal is so prominent that it is plainly visible on the silver screen.
By: Pete Kendall, February 29, 2008
Bear markets demand their anti-heroes.
The Elliott Wave Fiancial Forecast, January 2008
Back in June 2007 as the stock market peak approach, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast noted emergence of an important new role model: “The anti-hero is increasingly garnering the public’s interest.” Back in January we were covered the successful premiere of Sweeny Todd, which earned positive reviews and related that The Demon Barber of Fleet Street has deep bear market roots that actually go back to the 1840s when the U.S. was still dealing with the social manifestations of Supercycle wave (II) and British stock prices were locked in a long bear market.
Our stock market opinion is confirmed by this years Oscars, which were literally dominated by anti-hero roles. The most hardware went to No Country for Old Men, “the bloody story of a drug deal gone bad,” which won four Oscars including best film. Hollywood is “focused on themes of betrayal, corruption and murder. No Country beat out There Will Be Blood, Michael Clayton and Atonement, three films that also featured dark themes. The fifth nominee, Juno,was a comedy about teen pregnancy.” Well, even the 1930s had its screwball comedies.
What’s going on? Lisa Dombrowski, an associate professor of film at Wesleyan University, is on the money with this explanation from USA Today’s story: “The reflective attitudes of these characters fit the mood of this year." As the latest issue of EWFF says with respect to the markets and economy, there’s just no concealing the current position of social mood. In fact, this is confirms our forecast as an element of recognition is exactly what the Wave Principle calls for at this juncture of the wave count. This must be a big turn; the signal is so prominent that it is plainly visible on the silver screen.
Reality of Private Equity Has Only Just Begun to Appear
By: Pete Kendall, April 2, 2008
The very latest headlines from the private equity sector mark the beginning of the end for private equity: ‘Dark Side to Leverage’ Slows Buyouts” (USAToday, June 28, 2007), “Market’s Jitters Stir Some Fears For Buyout Boom” (WSJ, June 28, 2007) and “Private Equity Faces Investor Revolt” (Financial Times, June 27, 2007).
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 2007
Here again, we were a little early. EWFF first discussed the private equity phenomenon in late 2006. But one of the things we stated was that the while private equity was the type of activity that tends to extend a long advance, it would be particularly onerous on companies that employ it. The reason is that it saddles firms with burdensome debts at a time when cash is getting extremely hard to come by.
“Instead of reducing their exposure to debt companies and individuals are increasing it,” said the December 2006 EWFF. “Buyers are financing the deals with private equity in which 70% of the purchase price is bank debt that is held on the balance sheet of the purchased company. According to Standard & Poor’s, corporations have also significantly increased their use of debt financing in acquisitions. ‘There has been a fundamental shift in companies’ attitude towards debt as shareholders have put more pressure on them to perform,’ says Standard & Poor. The more vulnerable the economy and markets get, the more precariously companies and individuals position themselves.”
So, a mountain of debt created by the upward surge of mergers and acquisitions (shown on the chart above) is not growing anymore, but it’s just starting to drag down many a balance sheet. The last chapter in the private equity sage will show the full extent of the burden created by these deals. It will become visible as deflation sets in and companies find it harder and harder to generate cash flow. In the end, there will probably be a very public back against private equity. This will appear as the economic contraction tightens its grip.
The very latest headlines from the private equity sector mark the beginning of the end for private equity: ‘Dark Side to Leverage’ Slows Buyouts” (USAToday, June 28, 2007), “Market’s Jitters Stir Some Fears For Buyout Boom” (WSJ, June 28, 2007) and “Private Equity Faces Investor Revolt” (Financial Times, June 27, 2007).
The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, July 2007
Here again, we were a little early. EWFF first discussed the private equity phenomenon in late 2006. But one of the things we stated was that the while private equity was the type of activity that tends to extend a long advance, it would be particularly onerous on companies that employ it. The reason is that it saddles firms with burdensome debts at a time when cash is getting extremely hard to come by.
“Instead of reducing their exposure to debt companies and individuals are increasing it,” said the December 2006 EWFF. “Buyers are financing the deals with private equity in which 70% of the purchase price is bank debt that is held on the balance sheet of the purchased company. According to Standard & Poor’s, corporations have also significantly increased their use of debt financing in acquisitions. ‘There has been a fundamental shift in companies’ attitude towards debt as shareholders have put more pressure on them to perform,’ says Standard & Poor. The more vulnerable the economy and markets get, the more precariously companies and individuals position themselves.”
So, a mountain of debt created by the upward surge of mergers and acquisitions (shown on the chart above) is not growing anymore, but it’s just starting to drag down many a balance sheet. The last chapter in the private equity sage will show the full extent of the burden created by these deals. It will become visible as deflation sets in and companies find it harder and harder to generate cash flow. In the end, there will probably be a very public back against private equity. This will appear as the economic contraction tightens its grip.
11.4.08
22.3.08
21.3.08
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